What happens to bitcoin after it rises 10% in a day?
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a one-day rise of 10% or more in 29 of 57 cases (51%), with a median move of +1.9% and an average of +15.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.1%. The next day it was higher in 23 of 57 cases (median −0.7%).
Bitcoin After 10% One-Day Rises: Summary
Move from the close on the day of the big move (the big day itself is not counted). "All days" is every trading day since 2014, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| Median | −0.7% | −1.8% | +0.4% | +1.9% | +10.1% | +23.6% |
| Average | −0.3% | −0.7% | +4.4% | +15.2% | +33.0% | +51.3% |
| Higher in | 40% (23/57) | 47% (27/57) | 51% (29/57) | 51% (29/57) | 58% (33/57) | 67% (38/57) |
| Best | +25.2% Dec 6, 2017 | +26.1% Jul 17, 2017 | +95.4% Nov 15, 2017 | +204.1% Oct 12, 2017 | +366.6% Aug 5, 2017 | +437.3% Jul 27, 2020 |
| Worst | −14.1% Jun 26, 2019 | −21.8% Jan 4, 2017 | −35.9% Jan 5, 2018 | −58.0% Nov 12, 2014 | −55.9% Dec 7, 2017 | −65.3% Dec 16, 2017 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.4% | +1.7% | +7.1% | +10.9% | +42.2% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 54% | 56% | 58% | 61% | 73% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close on the big day, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often bitcoin was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10% one-day rises | 57 | −0.7% 40% up | +0.4% 51% up | +1.9% 51% up | +23.6% 67% up |
| Rises of 10–20% | 55 | −0.7% 42% up | +0.4% 51% up | +1.9% 51% up | +23.6% 67% up |
| Rises of 20% or more | 2 | −6.4% 0% up | +0.8% 50% up | −12.5% 50% up | +44.9% 50% up |
| In an uptrend (above the 200-day average) | 36 | −0.7% 42% up | +5.0% 56% up | +6.8% 53% up | +23.8% 67% up |
| In a downtrend (below the 200-day average) | 19 | −0.8% 42% up | −3.5% 42% up | −2.3% 47% up | +25.8% 68% up |
| First big rise in more than a month | 28 | −0.5% 39% up | +1.9% 54% up | +5.7% 61% up | +40.7% 82% up |
| Within a month of another | 29 | −1.3% 41% up | −2.1% 48% up | −4.4% 41% up | +4.9% 52% up |
Every Case
10% one-day rises since 2014, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close on the day of the move (US dollars).
| Date | Event | Bitcoin at that close | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Rose 12.5% to $70,555 | $70,555 | −1.8% | −5.1% | −6.6% | +3.4% | −9.9% | +15.5% |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Rose 10.2% to $88,701 | $88,701 | −0.8% | +2.1% | +8.1% | +6.6% | −5.2% | +32.4% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Rose 12.1% to $61,710 | $61,710 | −1.3% | −1.8% | −3.8% | −2.3% | +62.1% | +37.6% |
| Oct 23, 2023 | Rose 10.3% to $33,086 | $33,086 | +2.5% | +3.0% | +10.3% | +31.8% | +64.8% | +90.0% |
| Nov 10, 2022 | Rose 10.7% to $17,587 | $17,587 | −3.1% | −4.0% | −3.5% | +7.3% | +42.5% | +69.4% |
| Sep 9, 2022 | Rose 10.6% to $21,381 | $21,381 | +1.4% | −5.3% | −9.1% | −20.3% | −6.9% | +25.8% |
| Feb 28, 2022 | Rose 14.5% to $43,193 | $43,193 | +2.7% | −8.8% | −4.9% | −10.8% | −53.2% | −52.3% |
| Feb 4, 2022 | Rose 11.7% to $41,501 | $41,501 | −0.1% | +6.8% | −5.5% | +1.9% | −29.9% | −53.8% |
| Jun 9, 2021 | Rose 11.6% to $37,345 | $37,345 | −1.7% | +7.7% | −6.2% | +22.1% | +53.7% | +17.7% |
| May 24, 2021 | Rose 11.3% to $38,706 | $38,706 | −0.8% | −10.6% | +3.9% | −3.5% | +9.1% | −0.6% |
| May 20, 2021 | Rose 10.2% to $40,783 | $40,783 | −8.5% | −5.8% | −10.0% | −20.8% | +10.1% | −8.9% |
| Apr 26, 2021 | Rose 10.2% to $54,022 | $54,022 | +1.9% | +7.0% | −19.4% | −36.3% | −12.9% | −14.0% |
| Feb 8, 2021 | Rose 18.7% to $46,196 | $46,196 | +0.6% | +2.0% | +7.4% | +29.6% | −12.9% | +34.3% |
| Jan 13, 2021 | Rose 10.0% to $37,316 | $37,316 | +5.0% | −1.8% | +0.4% | +57.8% | −0.8% | +16.8% |
| Nov 5, 2020 | Rose 10.2% to $15,580 | $15,580 | −0.1% | −1.9% | +10.1% | +152.7% | +271.0% | +104.0% |
| Jul 27, 2020 | Rose 11.0% to $10,991 | $10,991 | −0.7% | +7.0% | +11.5% | −2.6% | +78.6% | +437.3% |
| Apr 29, 2020 | Rose 12.7% to $8,801 | $8,801 | −1.6% | +1.3% | +8.2% | +4.9% | +29.7% | +318.4% |
| Mar 23, 2020 | Rose 10.1% to $6,416 | $6,416 | +5.0% | −2.7% | +6.7% | +38.8% | +71.3% | +205.9% |
| Mar 19, 2020 | Rose 18.2% to $6,191 | $6,191 | +0.1% | +8.8% | +17.9% | +46.7% | +54.8% | +177.0% |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Rose 11.9% to $5,564 | $5,564 | −6.5% | −5.8% | +21.0% | +67.7% | +64.5% | +234.7% |
| Oct 25, 2019 | Rose 15.6% to $8,661 | $8,661 | +6.7% | +6.3% | −1.9% | −15.8% | +0.1% | +4.9% |
| Jul 18, 2019 | Rose 10.0% to $10,666 | $10,666 | −1.3% | −7.2% | +12.2% | −3.8% | −28.3% | −37.0% |
| Jul 3, 2019 | Rose 10.7% to $11,961 | $11,961 | −6.2% | +2.7% | −18.0% | −11.4% | −21.7% | −33.9% |
| Jun 28, 2019 | Rose 11.0% to $12,407 | $12,407 | −3.6% | −3.6% | −15.1% | −22.6% | −25.4% | −26.5% |
| Jun 26, 2019 | Rose 10.4% to $13,016 | $13,016 | −14.1% | −18.7% | −25.5% | −25.1% | −29.3% | −32.7% |
| May 19, 2019 | Rose 12.7% to $8,198 | $8,198 | −2.7% | −2.6% | −6.2% | +29.3% | +22.8% | +4.9% |
| May 13, 2019 | Rose 12.1% to $7,815 | $7,815 | +2.3% | −7.0% | +5.0% | +39.4% | +31.5% | +10.8% |
| May 11, 2019 | Rose 12.9% to $7,205 | $7,205 | −3.2% | +9.4% | +18.9% | +58.1% | +43.8% | +24.1% |
| Apr 2, 2019 | Rose 17.4% to $4,880 | $4,880 | +1.9% | +6.5% | +14.2% | +58.0% | +135.2% | +49.1% |
| Dec 20, 2018 | Rose 10.4% to $4,134 | $4,134 | −5.8% | −7.7% | −11.0% | −4.4% | +26.0% | +130.0% |
| Nov 28, 2018 | Rose 11.4% to $4,257 | $4,257 | +0.5% | −8.5% | −12.0% | −18.1% | +16.8% | +180.5% |
| Apr 12, 2018 | Rose 13.2% to $7,889 | $7,889 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +23.5% | −15.4% | −19.7% | −47.6% |
| Feb 14, 2018 | Rose 10.4% to $9,495 | $9,495 | +7.1% | +18.2% | +5.0% | −14.0% | −28.6% | −31.6% |
| Feb 6, 2018 | Rose 11.5% to $7,754 | $7,754 | −1.7% | +4.8% | +38.3% | −11.9% | −15.1% | −14.9% |
| Jan 20, 2018 | Rose 11.1% to $12,899 | $12,899 | −10.1% | −12.7% | −33.2% | −32.8% | −43.0% | −48.8% |
| Jan 5, 2018 | Rose 11.7% to $17,430 | $17,430 | +0.6% | −14.1% | −35.9% | −46.4% | −51.6% | −62.6% |
| Dec 26, 2017 | Rose 14.8% to $16,100 | $16,100 | −1.6% | −12.1% | −28.6% | −33.4% | −43.4% | −54.3% |
| Dec 16, 2017 | Rose 10.1% to $19,497 | $19,497 | −1.8% | −18.9% | −10.1% | −43.0% | −54.4% | −65.3% |
| Dec 7, 2017 | Rose 25.2% to $17,900 Twice the threshold | $17,900 | −7.4% | −2.7% | −18.4% | −53.8% | −55.9% | −64.6% |
| Dec 6, 2017 | Rose 19.9% to $14,292 | $14,292 | +25.2% | +18.5% | +10.8% | −46.7% | −51.2% | −55.9% |
| Nov 15, 2017 | Rose 10.2% to $7,316 | $7,316 | +7.6% | +12.1% | +95.4% | +52.9% | +22.1% | +11.8% |
| Nov 13, 2017 | Rose 10.2% to $6,559 | $6,559 | +1.2% | +18.8% | +77.7% | +110.7% | +31.6% | +17.6% |
| Oct 12, 2017 | Rose 12.9% to $5,447 | $5,447 | +3.7% | +2.9% | +30.0% | +204.1% | +86.6% | +23.6% |
| Sep 18, 2017 | Rose 13.5% to $4,065 | $4,065 | −3.4% | −6.7% | +17.4% | +101.7% | +168.9% | +75.5% |
| Sep 15, 2017 | Rose 15.3% to $3,638 | $3,638 | −0.3% | +7.4% | +20.2% | +111.9% | +219.1% | +105.6% |
| Aug 5, 2017 | Rose 12.3% to $3,253 | $3,253 | −1.2% | +3.9% | +33.8% | +36.1% | +366.6% | +145.5% |
| Jul 20, 2017 | Rose 23.9% to $2,818 Twice the threshold | $2,818 | −5.3% | −8.6% | +20.0% | +28.9% | +185.3% | +154.3% |
| Jul 17, 2017 | Rose 15.5% to $2,228 | $2,228 | +4.1% | +26.1% | +51.6% | +82.4% | +268.0% | +268.4% |
| Jan 4, 2017 | Rose 10.6% to $1,155 | $1,155 | −12.2% | −21.8% | −21.9% | −0.4% | +54.8% | +236.2% |
| Jun 16, 2016 | Rose 10.3% to $766.31 | $766.31 | −2.3% | −13.0% | −16.4% | −25.1% | −17.7% | +52.3% |
| Jun 12, 2016 | Rose 10.9% to $672.78 | $672.78 | +4.7% | +11.3% | −2.1% | −15.2% | −4.6% | +55.8% |
| May 28, 2016 | Rose 11.9% to $530.04 | $530.04 | −0.7% | +1.5% | +42.7% | +23.6% | +15.8% | +96.8% |
| Jan 20, 2016 | Rose 10.5% to $420.23 | $420.23 | −2.4% | −6.8% | −9.2% | −0.5% | +7.0% | +43.9% |
| Nov 3, 2015 | Rose 11.7% to $403.42 | $403.42 | +2.0% | −7.4% | −20.7% | +7.1% | +2.6% | +64.7% |
| Nov 2, 2015 | Rose 11.0% to $361.19 | $361.19 | +11.7% | +7.0% | −10.6% | +19.9% | +14.7% | +79.3% |
| Jan 15, 2015 | Rose 17.8% to $209.84 | $209.84 | −0.8% | +0.7% | +3.5% | +24.3% | +12.2% | +11.8% |
| Nov 12, 2014 | Rose 15.2% to $423.56 | $423.56 | −0.7% | −8.5% | −11.5% | −58.0% | −39.5% | −34.5% |
Why 10% one-day rises matter for bitcoin
Big one-day gains in bitcoin tend to come with fear or a sudden change in rate expectations: a banking or market crisis, a war, a weak economic report, a dovish Fed or a falling dollar, or ETF and regulatory news. Many come in volatile, falling markets as short-covering bounces, so the trend breakdown matters.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin after it rises 10% in a day?
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a one-day rise of 10% or more in 29 of 57 cases (51%), with a median move of +1.9% and an average of +15.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.1%. The next day it was higher in 23 of 57 cases (median −0.7%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a 10% one-day jump?
No. Three months later it was lower in 28 of 57 cases; the worst was −58.0% after November 12, 2014 and the best +204.1% after October 12, 2017. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After bitcoin rose 12.5% to $70,555 on February 6, 2026, bitcoin moved −1.8% by the next day, −6.6% after a month and +3.4% after three months.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's close on the day of the big move to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months), so the big day itself is not counted. A big day is a close-to-close move of 10% or more (UTC days). Big days often come in clusters, so many cases share the same weeks; the breakdown separates the first big day in a month from the ones that followed.